Cimini: Sunday notes: A challenging QB market

[C Mart]

We're back after a one-week hiatus, looking at the Jets and around the league:

1. QB hunters: New GM John Idzik and the Jets' entire scouting staff will descend on Indianapolis this week for the scouting combine, their first chance to see the top quarterbacks under the same roof. The Jets desperately need hope at the quarterback position, but this year is a challenge for talent evaluators because there are no sure things. Each of the top prospects has concerns: Matt Barkley (USC) had a disappointing senior year and hurt his shoulder. Geno Smith (West Virginia) slumped late in the year. Mike Glennon (North Carolina State) and Tyler Wilson (Arkansas) posted mediocre TD-INT ratios. Ryan Nassib (Syracuse) didn't wow at the Senior Bowl.

"The wheels came off for all the quarterbacks at some point this year," ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper said. "I think that’s why the teams are in predicament they are, trying to figure out this whole QB thing and not overdraft and push a guy up when he’s not deserving."

This separates the good scouting departments from the mediocre ones. There's no Andrew Luck here, but you can bet that starters will emerge from this draft. The pressure is on the evaluators to dig deep and determine if there's enough talent behind the flaws of each prospect. Sometimes there's an explanation. For instance: Glennon is criticized for having completed only 59 percent of his passes last season, but he was victimized by 46 drops, according to NFL.com. I expect the Jets to draft a quarterback at some point. Will they get it right? We'll see.

2. RW 2.0?: Quarterback-needy teams, including the Jets, are looking for the next Russell Wilson. Not happening, according to Kiper. He called Wilson a "once-in-a-lifetime player." Indeed, how many 5-foot-10 quarterbacks taken in the third round become instant stars? "You're not going to find a Russell Wilson every year," Kiper said. "You're not going to find a Russell Wilson every 20 years." That's not what Jets fans want to hear. Idzik was part of the Seattle brain trust that drafted Wilson and made him a rookie starter.

3. Poor supply, big demand: Two quarterbacks expected to hit the open market -- Michael Vick and Tarvaris Jackson -- were retained by the Eagles and Bills, respectively. Bills coach Doug Marrone said Jackson will be in an open competition against incumbent Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was thought to be on the chopping block. Detect a trend? The pool of available quarterbacks is so weak that teams are holding on to what they have, which doesn't bode well for the Jets. It's great news for a player like Matt Moore (Dolphins), an ordinary quarterback who could find himself the object of a free-agent bidding war. In this case, less is Moore.

4. Money for nothing: Interesting trend uncovered by ESPN's John Clayton: The top seven spending teams in 2012 failed to make the playoffs. (We're talking actual dollars, not cap dollars.) The biggest spenders/losers were the Saints at $167 million. In case you're wondering, the Jets finished 19th at $123.3 million in payroll. That figure, standing alone, isn't alarming. The real eyebrow-raiser is how they left so much unused cap space -- $3.5 million at the end of the year. For the record, the Super Bowl-champion Ravens ($132 million) finished 11th in payroll.

5. Super Mario: Let's pretend for a moment that the Jets acquiesce to Darrelle Revis and give him a Mario Williams-like contract -- six years, $96 million. It couldn't be the exact same deal because Revis still has a year left (Williams was a free agent), but play along as we use Williams' deal as a guide. Revis' cap numbers would be: $9.8 million, $12.4 million, $18.4 million, $19 million, $19.9 million and $16.5 million. His number would explode in 2015. Many believe the salary cap will spike in 2015, with new TV money thrown into the pot, but now there's talk that a spike won't occur. If the Jets re-up with Revis, they have to be prepared to incur a cap charge akin to a franchise quarterback.

6. Fountain of Youth: Rex Ryan's new-look coaching staff has a lot less NFL coaching experience than the previous one. The current staff (15 assistants) has a total of 87 years. The 2012 staff (same size) began last season with 128 years. A big chunk walked out the door when special teams coach Mike Westhoff (29 years) retired.

7. Buyer, beware: The cap-strapped Panthers may cut one of their three highly-paid running backs -- DeAngelo Williams ($8.2 million cap charge), Jonathan Stewart ($3 million) or Tony Tolbert ($2 million). Williams is the mostly likely to go, which surely would excite Jets fans looking for some excitement in the backfield. Beware, though: Williams turns 30 in April and was having a terrible year before rushing for 210 yards in the season finale against the Saints, the worst statistical defense in history. That wouldn't be a good pickup for the Jets.

8. No Jets love: Eleven players from the AFC East made the Pro Football Weekly top 50 free-agent list -- but no Jets. The Dolphins led the way with six players -- LT Jake Long (3rd), RB Reggie Bush (15), CB Sean Smith (27), DT Randy Starks (28), WR Brian Hartline (41) and QB Matt Moore (46). Three Patriots made it -- CB Aquib Talib (14), WR Wes Welker (17) and OT Sebastian Vollmer (20). The Bills had two -- G Andy Levitre (18) and S Jarius Byrd (22).

9. The Commi$sh: Roger Goodell reportedly made $29.5 million in 2011. Is that the franchise-tag amount for commissioners?

10. Green with envy: The Giants cop a haughty attitude when it comes to the Jets, calling them second-class citizens. But when their so-called stars gets released, they always seem to mention how they'd be interested in playing for the Jets. Funny how that works.

http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/jets

[southparkcpa]

PLEASE no Mike Glennon.

[Monsterxman]

Originally Posted by southparkcpa

PLEASE no Mike Glennon.

Mike Glennon is exactly the kind of qb the Jets should draft.
Don't look at what he does wrong, which can be fixed, look at what he does right and can't be taught.

I think he can be special.

[JonEJet]

Originally Posted by southparkcpa

PLEASE no Mike Glennon.

Knowing you don't like him, makes me sold on the guy

MIKE GLENNON in GREEN and WHITE WoooooHooooo

[JetsfanfromtheBURGH]

Originally Posted by JonEJet

Knowing you don't like him, makes me sold on the guy

MIKE GLENNON in GREEN and WHITE WoooooHooooo

Lol, this is so true.

[DDNYjets]

Originally Posted by southparkcpa

PLEASE no Mike Glennon.

+1.

Oh teh ironing from the Sanchez supporters.

[HardHittingJets]

EJ Manuel

Seems to me not a lot of people are talking about him but I feel fits well with the current NY Jets. Over 60%, big, can scramble, and went proven winner with a 12-2 season with a bowl victory. FSU averaged 39 points/game. He also didn't play with any top notch offensive talent. Would it be a surprise if he starts climbing draft boards post combine? Is he there for the Jets in round 2? Or am I too high on him?

Jets are a defensive team and this is the type of quarterback that can't create points on his own with the current offensive talent. It's not a popular opinion but I would go heavy on the defense and fit late offensive athletes and let them develop together. Manuel looks like he can extend plays.

[Beerfish]

If the Jets use their 1st rounder on a Qb I'll go ballisitc.
If the Jets use their 2nd rounder on a QB I'll be irate.
3rd rounder or lower, go for it.

[simijet]

Originally Posted by Beerfish

If the Jets use their 1st rounder on a Qb I'll go ballisitc.
If the Jets use their 2nd rounder on a QB I'll be irate.
3rd rounder or lower, go for it.

Yup

[Joe W. Namath]

I think idzik is bringing flynn in here. And i think we will all be pleasantly surprised by his play.

[Untouchable]

Originally Posted by Monsterxman

Mike Glennon is exactly the kind of qb the Jets should draft.
Don't look at what he does wrong, which can be fixed, look at what he does right and can't be taught.

I think he can be special.

This

If you guys are waiting around for the next Andrew Luck with virtually no flaws in his game, then I'll see you in 2030.

And lets pray to God that we have the #1 pick that year.

[Rexipus Rex]

Originally Posted by C Mart

Tony Tolbert

Mike Tolbert you mean? C'mon Rich.

[simijet]

Originally Posted by Untouchable

This

If you guys are waiting around for the next Andrew Luck with virtually no flaws in his game, then I'll see you in 2030.

I don't think anyone is really waiting for that. However, given our recent history with drafting QBs in the first couple of rounds, I think many on this board are afraid to take a questionable talent so early. With so many holes on this roster which could most likely be filled by drafting players at other positions, the Jets are not in the position to draft a guy who will most likely be a project.

[John_0515]

Originally Posted by JonEJet

Knowing you don't like him, makes me sold on the guy

MIKE GLENNON in GREEN and WHITE WoooooHooooo

Glennon is the worst one of all the top QB prospects to bring in and run a WC offense.

Just saying.

[dustykeller]

The ideal scenario is not drafting any of the QBs out of this class, and suffering with Sanchez for 1 more season.

Our franchise QB is waiting to be drafted in 2014.

[Gangrene]

I know it's not the only rule of thumb but I don't want an qb drafted with a completion percentage of less than 65%. Invest the draft picks in the other holes that need to be filled on the Jets, oline, linebackers etc.

[Monsterxman]

Originally Posted by simijet

I don't think anyone is really waiting for that. However, given our recent history with drafting QBs in the first couple of rounds, I think many on this board are afraid to take a questionable talent so early. With so many holes on this roster which could most likely be filled by drafting players at other positions, the Jets are not in the position to draft a guy who will most likely be a project.

Every QB has questionable talent coming out of college, except for a guy like Luck...

Matt Ryan's arm was critiqued, Joe Flacco's lack of competition was questioned, Mark Sanchez's one year of success in college, Russell Wilson's height, etc..

You guys want a more sure pick at QB, and they just don't exist except in extremely rare circumstances and even then it's a crapshoot with most failing than succeeding.

The new salary rules allow teams to make mistakes and not be locked into unworldly contracts.

That's why I'd argue it's smarter to pick guys with high ceilings like Glennon.

Eventually using this strategy you'll be more likely to land that franchise qb vs sitting around and waiting to be the worst team in the league and just happen to have a once in 20 year prospect be there to pick (Luck)...

[Sourceworx]

Originally Posted by Joe W. Namath

I think idzik is bringing flynn in here. And i think we will all be pleasantly surprised by his play.

I agree.

[Monsterxman]

Originally Posted by Gangrene

I know it's not the only rule of thumb but I don't want an qb drafted with a completion percentage of less than 65%. Invest the draft picks in the other holes that need to be filled on the Jets, oline, linebackers etc.

If the 46 balls that were dropped we're caught, he would have completed 66.7% of his passes...

Furthermore, go look at the game tapes and see the throws he attempts vs. a guy like Barkley.

Real NFL throws, deep outs, deep bombs, small windows...

[simijet]

Originally Posted by Monsterxman

Every QB has questionable talent coming out of college, except for a guy like Luck...

Matt Ryan's arm was critiqued, Joe Flacco's lack of competition was questioned, Mark Sanchez's one year of success in college, Russell Wilson's height, etc..

You guys want a more sure pick at QB, and they just don't exist except in extremely rare circumstances and even then it's a crapshoot with most failing than succeeding.

The new salary rules allow teams to make mistakes and not be locked into unworldly contracts.

That's why I'd argue it's smarter to pick guys with high ceilings like Glennon.

Eventually using this strategy you'll be more likely to land that franchise qb vs sitting around and waiting to be the worst team in the league and just happen to have a once in 20 year prospect be there to pick (Luck)...

Point taken.

However, this is not the year to potentially waste a high pick on someone who probably won't contribute for awhile - way too many holes on this team