FLORHAM PARK, N.J. — After my first crack at knocking the Talented Mr. Roto off his fantasy perch in the first round — OK, maybe I wasn’t that spot on — I’m ready to come out swinging in round two of my Friday Fantasy Focus. Forecasting fantasy football can be like forecasting the weather — you look like a genius when you guess right, and look down right dumb when you’re wrong.
The gloating over my Dustin Keller prediction and Shonn Greene’s touchdown was short-lived as I swung and miss badly on Santonio Holmes, who scored on the opening drive. Oops. Guess there was nothing to questionable about him. In my review of Holmes, I said more looks were going to Plaxico Burress. Ouch. That one hurt. But I’m still not jumping off his bandwagon.Unlike Yahoo! Sports users, who have made Burress the 27th most dropped WR in fantasy with 1,785 drops. If it’s receptions you’re looking for out of Burress, then sit him. He’s going to get his most value out of the red zone — which is where fantasy owners want him.
That’s why I’m buying him this week. It’s like roulette; if it’s been black for a while — and with his zero receptions last Sunday, it was — then it’s bound to hit red next. Right?
- Plaxico Burress, WR, Jets — Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez addressed the issue before any reporters had a chance to even ask about his 0 receptions. They were aware of it and apologetic. Expect them to target Burress early on, especially in the red zone. He’s going against man-to-man coverage, which he prefers, and the Raiders are the sixth worst fantasy defense against receivers this year, according to Yahoo! Sports.
- Dustin Keller, TE, Jets — He’s almost a no-brainer at this point. Last week against the Jaguars he accounted for a third of Sanchez’s completions. Sanchez can trust him to make the catch and from there he has the agility to make a few guys miss. May not get a touchdown this week, but will definitely help you out in PPR leagues.
- Jets Defense/Special Teams — While the Raiders have been one of the worst teams for fantasy defenses in the first two games, they haven’t faced a defense like the Jets. Gang Green boasts the fourth best fantasy defense in league. The sacks may not come, as the Raiders offensive line has only given up one sack thus far, but expect turnovers. They have five turnovers in two games — with the majority coming against the Jaguars. If the Jets take an early lead, that’ll eliminate McFadden and force Jason Campbell to make plays. On special teams, well, in Mike Westhoff we trust. He may have the most physically gifted athlete he’s ever coached in Antonio Cromartie returning kicks.
- Shonn Greene, RB, Jets — I was high on Greene last week and he rewarded fantasy owners who stuck with him. The Jets are a running team, or at least that’s what they keep telling us. They’re essentially running a feature back offense, which sounds great in theory, but they are averaging just 78 rushing yards per game. And the offensive line has always been a huge weapon in their rushing attack. But with Nick Mangold ruled out of the game with an ankle injury, the line is hurting. Against a formidable front Raider front seven, I’d sit Greene this week if there is a good replacement for him. POTENTIAL PICK-UPS: Roy Helu, Redskins; Daniel Thomas, Dolphins; Ben Tate, Texans.
- Jacoby Ford, WR, Raiders — Ford missed last week against the Bills and it appears he’ll be out (hamstring) against the Jets. He joins Burress on Yahoo! Sports top WR dropped list, standing strong at number four with 3,709 drops. POTENTIAL PICK-UPS: David Nelson, Buffalo; Devry Henderson, Saints; Eric Decker, Broncos.
- Denarius Moore, WR, Raiders — He had one helluva game against the Bills last week, which sparked the love for many fantasy owners this week. But the Jets are the seventh best fantasy team against receivers, giving up just 227 yards and two TDs against all receivers in two games. Do yourself a favor, don’t start him. Hold off until the next week.
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