With the Jets’ offseason program well underway, simulating the Jets’ 2023-2024 season piqued our interest. The excitement for the upcoming season is building. OTAs are in full swing, and training camp and the regular season will be here in the blink of an eye. It will not be long until the Jets and Aaron Rodgers are in real game action and working to be one of the best teams in the AFC.
Yet, there are still a few months until the real bullets start flying in the regular season. In the meantime, I figured it would be interesting to look at how the Jets are predicted to do this season.
Using PFF’s Game Simulator Tool, I looked at four simulations of the Jets’ 2023-2024 regular season. The simulator gave score predictions for each game and gave the passing, rushing, and receiving stats for the season. Unfortunately, the simulations did not include any potential playoff results.
The Jets’ 2023-2024 Regular Season
In the first simulation, the Jets had a 10-7 record. Aaron Rodgers threw for 5,024 yards, 10 INTs, and 33 TDs on 394 completions. He also added 184 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown on the year.
Breece Hall and Zonovan Knight were the Jets’ best rushers, having 875 and 460 yards, respectively. Hall added 342 receiving yards, bringing his total yardage to 1,217 on the season. He had ten total touchdowns on the year, with seven on the ground and 3 in the air. Knight added 311 receiving yards and had six total touchdowns on the year.
Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard had the best-receiving production for the Jets, having 1,147 and 1,053 yards apiece. Wilson added ten touchdowns on 80 receptions, while Lazard had seven touchdowns on 63.
Tyler Conklin, CJ Uzomah, and Mecole Hardman also added production through the air. Hardman had 653 yards and six touchdowns, Conklin had 628 yards and two touchdowns, and Uzomah had 469 yards and one touchdown.
The second simulation had the Jets improving their record to 11-6. This was highlighted by victories over the Bills in Weeks 1 and 11, a season sweep of New England, and wins over the Chiefs and Eagles.
This simulation had some slight changes in the stats for the season. Aaron Rodgers had 4,989 yards passing and 30 touchdowns, a slight decrease in production but still an impressive season.
Breece Hall decreased in his total touchdowns and receiving yardage, having seven total touchdowns and only 239 yards. Yet, he increased his total yardage to 1,257, propelled by 1,018 rushing yards. Zonovan Knight, on the other hand, increased his total yards to 911 and had six total touchdowns again.
Garrett Wilson’s touchdowns decreased to four, but his receiving yardage jumped up to 1,405 on the season. Allen Lazard had the opposite occur, as his yardage dropped to 927, but his touchdowns jumped to 10 on the year. Tyler Conklin and CJ Uzomah increased their touchdown production, as Conklin had six while Uzomah had four.
The third simulation was the outlier out of the four, with the Jets going 7-10. The team lost both games to Miami, split with Buffalo and New England, and lost to the Giants, Eagles, and Chiefs.
Aaron Rodgers jumped back up to 5,047 yards but increased his interceptions to 12 and lowered his touchdowns to 24. Breece Hall only had 789 rushing yards but still managed to eclipse 1,200 yards from scrimmage. The receiving numbers also decreased, as Garrett Willson barely passed the 1,000-yard marker, and Allen Lazard only had 883 yards. One of the few improvers was Mecole Hardman, who jumped up to 776 receiving yards and five touchdowns.
The fourth simulation was in line with the first and second simulations, as the Jets finished with a record of 11-6. This was highlighted by the Jets only losing one divisional game to the Patriots and defeating the Chargers.
Aaron Rodgers had over 5,000 passing yards and 30 touchdowns, putting him in line with his previous stat lines. Breece Hall had ten total touchdowns and an absurd 1,468 yards from scrimmage, while Zonovan Knight had 878 total yards and four total touchdowns. In the receiving game, both Wilson and Lazard had over 1,000 yards receiving. Wilson led the team in receiving touchdowns at seven, followed by Breece Hall at five and Lazard and Corey Davis at four.
These simulations have shown that if Rodgers can play to his capabilities, the Jets’ offense can and will be expected to be dominant. The simulator had Rodgers throwing for over 5,000 yards in three of the four attempts and over 30 touchdowns in three of the four attempts. In the scenarios where Rodgers had these numbers, the Jets had ten or more wins.
In addition, the simulations have high expectations for Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, and Allen Lazard. Hall had over 1,200 yards from scrimmage in all four simulations and never had under 700 yards rushing. Garrett Wilson had at least 1,000 yards in every simulation and had five or more touchdowns in three of the four simulations. Lazard also had over 1,000 yards in two of the four simulations and seven or more touchdowns in two or more of the simulations.
The PFF simulator is far from perfect, as it does not include defensive statistics currently and does not take any potential injuries into account. Yet, it provides excellent insight into the Jets’ range of possibilities this season.
If Rodgers and the Jets play up to their potential, they have the talent to be one of the best teams in their division and the whole AFC. On the other hand, Rodgers and the offense could falter and cause the Jets to disappoint in terms of their expectations for the season.
This exercise represents some, but not all, of the possibilities that could happen in the Jets’ upcoming season. There could be injuries that derail the season. Other teams may suffer setbacks, injuries, or simply underachieve, allowing the Jets to be even better.
But despite the range of outcomes, one thing is for sure. If the Aaron Rodgers-led Jets offense plays to the level these simulations showed, it will be a very exciting and eventful season for both the team and its fans.